John Hattie s Synthesis Of Approximately 800 Meta...

John Hattie’s synthesis of approximately 800 meta-analysis studies involving over 52,000 studies of educational achievement led to the development of six signposts of excellence in education. Hattie determined that of these â€Å"the most powerful determinants of educational achievement all involved teacher-student interaction† (Drew, 2011, pp. 85-86). Furthermore, Hattie noted that â€Å"it is less the content of curricula that is important than the strategies teachers use to implement the curriculum so that students progress upwards through the curricula content† (2009, p. 159). The aspects of my current practice that support quality STEM education correlate to the strategies employed to implement the curriculum. Fundamental towards this approach remains the establishment of a learning community that values mistakes as learning opportunities, where students â€Å"can feel safe to learn, relearn, and explore knowledge and understanding† (Hattie, 2009, p. 240). Establishment of such a community requires front loading from the beginning of the school year and daily maintenance throughout the academic year. The foundation for community is laid during the morning meeting. This student led meeting consists of a greeting, sharing, group activity, and a morning message and is in keeping with the Responsive Classroom approach. â€Å"The Responsive Classroom approach consists of a set of practices that build academic and social-emotional competencies and that can be used along with many other

Cultural Sensitivity in Counseling Native Americans Free Essays

string(60) " doing what is right for oneself and for one’s community\." Three of the most popular techniques in use by the counseling profession were examined in relationship to Native American culture and worldview, in order to determine the reasons for their ineffectiveness among these people groups. The results indicate that a lack of understanding and sensitivity to Native American culture and belief systems by counselors may be the major contributing factors in the failure of these methods to produce lasting change. Three alternative methods were then investigated. We will write a custom essay sample on Cultural Sensitivity in Counseling Native Americans or any similar topic only for you Order Now Together, these examinations show that cultural sensitivity and an in-depth understanding of belief systems and practices are critical in helping Native Americans heal from historical traumas and affect real transformation within the Native American community. Cultural Sensitivity in Counseling: A Perspective on Native Americans Why is it that many Native Americans fail to benefit from counseling? Why is there such an enormous â€Å"burn-out† rate among counselors who work with this people group? These questions are becoming increasingly more important in the counseling profession. There have been many studies on competencies and practices in multicultural counseling. One such study although dealing primarily with career counseling (Vespia, Fitzpatrick, Fouad, Kantamneni, Chen, 2010), reinforced the necessity for training in developing a counselor’s competency with diverse cultures. Another study which dealt specifically with psychotherapy (Lambert, Smart, Campbell, Hawkins, Harmon, Slade, 2006), echoes this sentiment. However, the cause of ineffectiveness may not necessarily be the incompetence of counselors, but their tendency to use inappropriate methods which fail to consider the unique cultural heritage of Native Americans. These culturally-insensitive methods can sometimes compel clients to violate basic personal values. For example, Native Americans place great emphasis on a harmonious co-existence with nature. If a counselor advocates individual responsibility for mastering the environment, he is, in fact, asking his Native American client to disregard a part of his client’s cultural belief system. Take the case of Robert Red Elk (not his real name), a White Mountain Apache, hired at a manufacturing plant in Phoenix, Arizona. Robert’s supervisor witnessed many instances where Robert’s fellow employees asked to share his lunch or complete their work assignments. Robert never refused and willingly overworked himself (to the point of exhaustion) finishing the tasks of others. Eventually, after several absences from work, Robert was referred to counseling by his supervisor. The counselor, after an initial assessment, enrolled Robert in assertiveness training. The counselor, however, failed to understand one very important aspect of Robert Red Elk’s value system: Native Americans are not individualistic. Their culture places great value on sharing and service. There are over 500 federally recognized Indian tribes in the United States. Each tribe has its own beliefs, customs and traditions. Many Native Americans have left the reservation and know very little of their tribal culture, having assimilated into White society. There are, however, many common threads running through Native American culture and philosophy, which if misunderstood can open a breach between counselor and client that can be difficult to heal. For the purposes of this paper, we will be dealing primarily with Native Americans raised and residing within traditional Indian reservation communities. These individuals have retained much of their cultural identity, as opposed to those who have moved into the cities and have become westernized into the White culture. Nearly every tribe has wide-spread personal and social issues which are threatening lives and creating broken homes and broken people. Compared with other racial and ethnic groups, Native Americans have more serious problems with mental health disorders (Olson Wahab, 2006, p. 19-33). For example, on the Pine Ridge Reservation of the Lakota Sioux, over 50% live below the poverty level. In 2007, the suicide rate there was 3. 2 times that of Whites, between 50% and 90% were unemployed, and the death rate due o alcoholism was 7 times the national average (Diller, 2007). Counselors employ many methods in an attempt to help Native American clients heal from brokenness. This investigation will examine three popular techniques: Free association, cognitive therapy, and behavior modification. In addition, we will discuss why these methods are failing with many Native American clients. First, however, there is a need to explore the average Native American value system. The Native American Value System Silence and Talking. Native Americans believe that listening is the best way to learn. They understand that there are many â€Å"voices† to hear, not merely from other people, but from the earth, the wind, the sky, and the animal kingdom. They listen not only with their physical ears, but with their whole being in an attitude of â€Å"watch, listen and then act† (Nerburn, 2002). They believe it unwise to speak before completely formulating one’s thoughts. They understand the power of words, and so they speak carefully, choosing words judiciously. In most non-native cultures, interaction with others must be filled with words and speaking that can sometimes become argumentative. Just the opposite is true in most Native American cultures. When asked a question, there will normally be a pause before answering, because any question worthy of an answer is worth considering. When they finally do speak, it is expected that the hearer will listen. Interrupting is considered rude and a sign of ignorance. This practice of silence has a tendency to disconcert someone who is unfamiliar with it, and historically, Caucasians have viewed it as a sign of stupidity. Freedom and Honor Native American cultures value honor far above freedom. Honor is the internal guide for nearly everything they do. The focus is more on what is right, rather than what is wrong. This is one reason why Native Americans have a difficult time understanding the concept of sin. In addition, honor is something that cannot be taken away. If one loses his freedom, he still retains his honor. These views of freedom and honor are very different from those held by western peoples. In the White world, honor means paying homage to or admiring an individual’s accomplishments. To the Native American, honor means knowing and doing what is right for oneself and for one’s community. You read "Cultural Sensitivity in Counseling Native Americans" in category "Papers" It has no relation to laws or the desire to avoid punishment. Freedom only becomes important after one has been â€Å"chained up,† either literally or by the enactment of laws and restrictions (Nerburn, 2002). All My Relations and Racism According to the New Lakota Dictionary, â€Å"Mitakuye oyasin† translates to â€Å"all my relatives† in Lakota Sioux (Ullrich, 2008, p. 37). The concept of all my relations constitutes an understanding of and honor for the sacredness of each person’s individual spiritual path. It acknowledges the sacredness of all life (human, animal, plant, etc. ) and creates an awareness that strengthens not only the individual, but the entire pl anet. It essentially means that everything is inter-related. In the living of daily life, all my relations â€Å"means learning how to connect with certain constructive or creative forces, and disconnect from destructive forces† (Portman Garrett, 2006). It’s the understanding that whatever hurts one aspect of the world hurts everything else. Rolling Thunder, the late spiritual leader of the Cherokee and Shoshone tribes, said, â€Å"Too many people don’t know that when they harm the earth they harm themselves, nor do they realize that when they harm themselves they harm the earth†¦We say there’s room for everyone, if we all share as brothers and sisters† (â€Å"Plowboy Interview,† 1981). This belief in the brotherhood of the human race is one reason why Native Americans abhor racism. Another reason is their suffering because of it. From the 1490’s to the 1890’s, Europeans and white Americans engaged in an unbroken string of genocide campaigns against the Native people of the Americas† (BigFoot Willmon-Hague, 2008, p. 54). A study on multi-faith perspectives in family therapy made note of the following historical treatment of Native Americans: â€Å"In government and missio nary programs to educate and acculturate Indians in Christianity and Western ways, children were forcibly taken from their families to boarding schools and stripped of their cultural and spiritual heritage† (Walsh, 2010, p. 3). Consequently, Native Americans view racism as evil and most avoid retaliation, because they believe it creates a loss of honor. However, many American Indians still retain an inherent mistrust of Whites (Bryant-Davis Ocampo, 2006, p. 16). In a study on reservation violence, it was noted that traditionally one important factor regarding Native American philosophy was â€Å"humility to those with whom one does not share beliefs; and teaching nonviolent behaviors† (Hukill, 2006, p. 249). A reintegration with traditional beliefs and practices could help stem the violence on reservations. Concept of Time Native people are not enslaved by a clock or calendar. Their concept of time is related more to the seasons, nature, relationships, and life spans. Time is a cycle as, in the sacred hoop. Time is not measured in linear fashion, having a past, present and future. Living each day as it comes is linked to the belief that one should focus more on being than becoming. This concept of time can explain why Native Americans might be late for counseling appointments by the hour or by days. Adherence to a rigid schedule is not traditionally an Indian practice. Things are done as they need doing. Time is flexible and geared to the activity at hand. Some other examples of this concept of time are: * A right time and a right place, as opposed to making every minute count. * Today is a good day, as opposed to preparing for tomorrow. Other concepts that affect how Native Americans react to traditional counseling methods include striving for anonymity, discouraging aggressiveness (such as boasting and loud behavior), the value of inaction over action, and the use of tribal healing ceremonies. Understanding Native American healing practices requires helping professionals to have knowledge of the cultural belief systems that are unique for each tribal nation†¦Ã¢â‚¬  (Portman Garrett, 2006, p. 455). Culturally Insensitive Counseling Methods Counseling methods that fail to consider culturally-relevant issues are realizing few successes with native peoples. Three of the most prominent techniques fail to take into account the Native Americanâ⠂¬â„¢s holistic belief system and attempt to merely change behavior by changing one’s thinking. Free Association. Free association is a spontaneous, logically unconstrained and undirected association of ideas, emotions and feelings in which words or images suggest other words or images in a non-logical chain reaction. The basic concept is for the client to sort things out, and assign reasons to their feelings, with the intention of changing unhealthy ideas and emotions into a more acceptable way of living. Native American clients typically shy away from participating in this type of activity, because they see it as senseless babbling that accomplishes little and makes a person appear to have lost their mind. They much prefer being silent and listening to talking and babbling themselves into a reasonable state of mind. In addition, they are very cautious about sharing personal and family problems, and have difficulty communicating their reactions to situations. Cognitive Therapy Cognitive therapy aims to identify and correct distorted thinking patterns that lead to feelings and behavior that are troublesome, self-defeating or self-destructive. The objective is to replace distorted thinking with a balanced view that leads to more fulfilling and productive behavior. Due to the epidemic of depression, alcoholism and suicide among Native Americans, this is an admirable objective for counselors to attempt to achieve. However, for a people, who are holistically-minded, cognitive therapy considers only one facet of the whole person, and ignores the connection humans have with nature and the world. This approach disavows the unity of the person, a central core belief in Native American culture. To separate the mind from the body and spirit, and with the rest of creation, is an illogical and foreign concept to them. In addition, most Native Americans are pragmatic and tend to see life in concrete terms rather than abstract ones. Therefore, â€Å"counselors may consider working from a holistic, wellness-based framework,† so that harmony and balance can be restored (Rayle, Chee, Sand, 2006, p. 72). Behavior Modification This approach is a treatment approach based on operant conditioning that seeks to extinguish or inhibit abnormal or maladaptive behavior by positive or negative reinforcement. As with cognitive therapy, behavior modification focuses entirely on one facet of the whole person. Native Americans are very resistant to this approach, because they do not always focus on their thinking. Historically, they have been exposed to the inconsistency of people thinking one way and behaving another way. According to Native American culture, behavior reflects belief. Attempting to change behavior from the outside and failing to deal with internal issues is viewed as a waste of energy and considered unproductive. Typically, Native Americans respond better to holistic methods that involve the whole person: body, mind and spirit. Culturally insensitive approaches to counseling can actually introduce a sense of mistrust into relationships between native clients and non-native counselors derailing attempts to help them overcome the issues that defeat them. This is one reason why Native Americans â€Å"underutilize mainstream mental health resources† (Parrish, 2006, p. 15). Culturally Supportive Approaches to Counseling As understanding and knowledge of cultural beliefs and practices grows, holistic approaches to counseling are becoming more prevalent in clinics and practices in which the majority of clients are Native American. There are several methods which are showing great promise in helping these clients. Inner Healing Prayer Because Native American culture is infused with the spiritual and encompasses a holistic view of the body, soul and spirit, the concept of listening, which is the foundation of this method, lends itself to a more culturally-relevant way of approaching the mental and emotional issues found among indigenous peoples. Native cultures are already accustomed to listening because of their practice of being attentive to the sounds of nature and the practices of oral traditions passed down through the stories of tribal elders. They understand that listening is one of the best ways to learn. The inner healing prayer can offer Native Americans a way to re-establish harmony with their body, their emotions, and their spiritual selves (Rayle, Chee Sand, 2006, p. 77), since it begins with addressing one’s emotional hurts. â€Å"It is counselor-led and client-consented prayer intervention with the specific intent of healing and breaking the chains of past traumas† (Clinton Ohlschlager, 2002, p. 240). When woundedness goes unresolved, it affects the whole person creating disharmony within the body, soul and spirit. Native American culture already understands this concept. The typical scenario is to give the client permission to experience what they feel, and allow their inner emotions to express themselves in a controlled, safe environment. Encouraging them to remember those painful places and the trauma that occurred there helps bring emotions to the surface where they can be explored, felt, owned, and released from the captured place within the spirit. Once accomplished, the counselor can then ask the Lord Jesus [Great Mystery] to minister His love and grace, revealing truth in whatever manner He chooses. The counselor then remains silent, encouraging the client to verbally express whatever is transpiring within them and articulate whatever truth the Lord is revealing to them. The counselor’s role is to discern whether the client is receiving truth from the Lord (according to the revealed Word of God) or error manifested from within themselves, which would constitute feelings and/or thoughts that run contrary to scripture. Once it is determined that authentic truth has been received, the counselor then asks the client what is now different about that traumatic event when they reconsider it. At this point, an entirely different perspective is usually revealed by the client. It is important when using this method, as it is with any technique, to â€Å"weave Western counseling techniques with elements of the AI [American Indian] culture, beliefs, and philosophy† (Rayle, Chee Sand, 2006, p. 73-74) [emphasis mine]. It is well to remember, however, that many Native Americans do not believe in the â€Å"white man’s God. It is important, therefore, to use terms for deity that are culturally relevant, such as Great Mystery, Great Spirit, etc. This approach has shown great potential in overcoming issues such as depression and addiction. Spiritual Talking Talking circles, storytelling and remembering/reflecting on life is very common in Native American culture. Many indigenous children receive the ir first life lessons sitting at the feet of their elders as grandmothers and grandfathers recount tribal stories that teach the traditions of the tribe (Rybak Decker-Fitts, 2009, p. 337). Since native people relate more to â€Å"the now,† it is very therapeutic to recall and embrace the good things in one’s present situation. Talking aloud about pleasant experiences helps clients see the good in their present circumstances and allows their spirit to â€Å"be as one† with their body-mind uniting them with the world at large. This enables them to see the big picture and brings everything into a healthy perspective. The role of the counselor in this technique is to facilitate the talking and keep the client on track, while providing a safe environment for them. Another form that spiritual talking may take is in the use of humor. Native cultures inherently understand the old cliche: Laughter is the best medicine. Encouraging clients to share comical stories and experiences can provide insight into the client’s identity and self-image. However, counselors should exercise caution in using humor. It should only be introduced â€Å"when and if the client invites it, meaning that the client trusts the counselor enough to connect on that level† (Garrett, et al. , 2005, p. 202). The Holistic Medicine Wheel or Red Path One of the most effective healing techniques and one which incorporates extensively the Native American culture is the Medicine Wheel, sometimes called the Red Path or Red Road. The Medicine Wheel is a symbol of Native America in which four colors (white, black, yellow and red) are used to represent the four directions and the four races of people (Caucasian, African, Asian and Indian), respectively. This symbol also represents the harmony and balance of the mind, body and spirit with nature. The Medicine Wheel is regarded as sacred among Native Americans, since â€Å"medicine† is a spiritual entity within their culture. The Medicine Wheel is recognized by all tribes and is a common symbol of unity. It represents healing, not only for oneself, but for the entire native community. This technique, when employed in the counseling setting, includes not only the counselor and client, but also family and friends. It can also be a good tool for use in group counseling where all participants share in a common issue. The facilitator/counselor invites all present to form a circle. The concept of the four directions and their meanings is then discussed. A good representation is: * East represents the rising sun and the spirit or inner being of man (red). * South is connected to full daylight and represents a connection with nature (yellow). * North is the home of winter and represents the mind or thoughts (white). * West is where the sun sets and is connected with the body or physical being (black). (Molina, Monteiro-Leitner, Garrett Gladding, 2005, p. 9). The counselor then explains the concept of circles within circles. Dallas Williard’s Model of the Person is an excellent starting pattern for this concept (Clinton Ohlschlager, 2002, p. 190). Molina, et al. explain this technique well: An inner circle represents the connection to one’s Spirit and to the Greater Spirit; an outer circle represents the importance of relationships with family members; and a community circle represents the importance of relationships with the greater community. At this point, volunteers sit behind each person in the inner circle, forming an outer circle. Finally, the remaining participants form a third circle, which lends support to the inner and outer circles. Throughout the process, life stories emerge. Counselors identify client strengths and validate their experiences, and participants offer support to one another and create â€Å"happy† endings to their stories (p. 9). This method helps clients see â€Å"how they create and remove the masks of the self† (Molina, Monteiro-Leitner, Garrett Gladding, 2005, p. 9). The removal of masks allows the client to be open with their true feelings and to see their issues from a different perspective. A doctoral dissertation by Mark Parrish (2008) offers another well-described view of the Circle Within Circles Approach: The elements of the circle within circles includes: (1) the spirit within us including the culmination of each individual’s experiences representing the power that comes from the very essence of one’s being; (2) the family and/or clan, the relational center of the community; (3) the natural environment and all of its relationships with living beings; and (4) the spirit world which includes the other elements as well as the Creator, ancestors and other spirit helpers and guides. In essence, all life is interdependent and exists in a dynamic state of harmony and balance which maintains a continuous flow and cycling of energy which each living being contributes to the Circle of Life (p. 16). The Medicine Wheel and the Circle Within Circles â€Å"serves as a reminder that all aspects of life are important and need to be balanced† (Rybak Decker-Fitts, 2009, p. 336). Although most individuals will still require more intensive therapy, the Medicine Wheel is a good starting point to help clients remember that they are not an island, but are connected to other individuals and to the world as a whole. Personal Reflections Understanding Native American culture, and learning their views life has caused me to reconsider my own lifestyle and my Caucasian worldview. As westerners, we are an inherently individualistic society, whereas Native Americans are more collective. The mindset and complex belief systems of indigenous people are more similar to God’s original plan for mankind than that which White society has developed. Jesus prayed to the Father for unity: that His followers would â€Å"be one, as we are. (John 17:11b, KJV). Native American culture appears to mirror His prayer more than that of Caucasians. Native Americans are more in tune with their spiritual natures than we, and were the original holistic healers. They understand the concept of man’s triune nature as set forth in 1 Thessalonians 5:23: â€Å"And the very God of peace sanctify you wholly; and I pray God your whole spirit and soul and body be preserved blameless unto the coming of our Lord Jesus Ch rist† [emphasis mine]. This concept has been a vital part of their culture for hundreds of years, whereas we are just now (within the past decade) becoming more sensitive to a holistic approach in counseling and medicine. It is very interesting that as one learns the culture and values of Native Americans, one begins to see that there are many aspects that reflect basic biblical principles. Western counseling methods, which have been imposed upon the Native Americans for many years, are very foreign to a people who already understand an important truth of God’s Word. It makes much better sense to first understand their culture and beliefs and then adapt our methods and techniques accordingly, in order to be more effective facilitators in the healing process. Not only will these historically-wounded people be set free with true inner healing, but at the same time many may come into a full knowledge of and a relationship with the true Lord Jesus Christ. Jesus healed the blind man of his physical ailments before healing him of his spiritual malady. Therefore, if we connect with Native Americans through their ways of life, love them in Christ, and keep the Holy Spirit as the center of our ministry to them, many of these forgotten people can enjoy a fullness of life that only comes through the healing power of Christ. As a Christian counselor, I will be committed to providing the Native American people with a biblically-sound, culturally-relevant approach to helping them heal the issues from which they suffer, both historically and personally. As I become more knowledgeable in their beliefs, traditions and worldview, I can foresee a time when what I am learning now will blend with that insight to produce techniques which will enable me to be a more effective counselor to the people to whom God has called me to minister. Conclusion To be effective counselors within the Native American community, it is not enough that we increase our knowledge of psychology and our skills in counseling. We need to immerse ourselves in the cultural issues pertinent to each individual client and the community which has shaped them. This comes by understanding belief systems and cultural contexts, and determining what methods can and cannot work based upon these parameters. Native American culture is centered on certain holistic viewpoints: the wholeness of the individual (body, mind and spirit), the individual’s interconnectedness with creation, and the relationship all people have with one another. Counseling such a people involves understanding and respecting values, beliefs and traditions, and tailoring our methods and techniques around restoring harmony and balance in ways which do not demand or manipulate Native Americans into ceasing to be Native American. One very good exercise for assisting in the development of counselor competency in this area is cultural auditing, which is a â€Å"systematic and practical reflective method designed to address critical elements of the multicultural competency development process† (Collins, Arthur Wong-Wylie, 2010, p. 340-346). The 13 steps of this process lead counselors through the first to last counseling sessions by helping them reflect on key issues of culture that can help them develop competent strategies and monitor their practices â€Å"to ensure that the goals and processes of counseling are consistent with clients’ perspectives and needs† (Collins, Arthur Wong-Wylie, 2010, p. 341). In order for greater effectiveness to be realized in counseling Native Americans (and indeed people of all cultures), mental health professionals and researchers must understand that all methods do not work with all people. Milton Erickson, one of psychotherapy’s most respected figures, who was of Native American descent, understood this very well (Thomason, 2009, p. 351). A 40-year study of multicultural counseling, completed in 2008 by Michael D’Andrea and Elizabeth Foster Heckman, discovered many inconsistencies and out-dated methods being utilized with clients of diverse cultures, and called for researchers to â€Å"expand their outcome studies to examine the impact of other types of helping services among culturally different populations† (D’Andrea Heckman, 2008, p. 62). Their final statement summarizes beautifully what is needed for effective, long-term resolution for Native Americans: We suggest that the multicultural counseling movement is a movement of faith and hope: faith in counselors’ ability to generate new understanding of mental health from a multicultural perspective and hope that future counseling and research endeavors will be implemented to more ef fectively promote human dignity and development through people’s collective diversity (D’Andrea Heckman, 2008, p. 362). The increase of diverse of cultures within the United States makes it imperative (a) â€Å"that therapists have the skills to work with a variety of clients from a multitude of social backgrounds (Murphy, Park Lonsdale, 2006, p. 310); and (b) â€Å"for the counseling profession to take a proactive stance on cultural diversity† (Phiri-Alleman Allman, 2010, p. 157). Culturally competent counseling has been addressed by the American Counseling Association Code of Ethics (ACA) and the Council for Accreditation of Counseling and Related Educational Programs (CACREP). Both of these groups stress the importance of social and cultural diversity in training programs for counselors, and emphasize the need for culturally-relevant treatment planning, especially when working with Native Americans (Parrish, 2008, p. 17). The competency of multicultural counselors can best be developed by encouraging them to become knowledgeable in the beliefs, traditions and worldview of various cultures and utilize that knowledge to tailor their counseling techniques in ways that will boost the effectiveness of their practice. How to cite Cultural Sensitivity in Counseling Native Americans, Papers

Ecomomy In 2000 Essay Example For Students

Ecomomy In 2000 Essay Evaluating the bull market today, it is almost impossible to pick up a financial journal without seeing news on the bull market that some consider to be overvalued. Overvalued or fairly valued, only the future will show the truth. Either way, this market is one that has shown greater run ups and returns, than any other market in history. (Reference Appendix #1a) Recently the Dow Jones Industrial Average has reached historical highs and then receded back to previous levels, leaving investors who are used to consistent and record setting gains month after month, baffled. Both the Dow Jones and the S P 500 indices have seen modest and even flat performances over the past three months. (Reference #1b)A recent article that was published on the front page of the Wall Street Journal emphasized that returns were flat due to the fact that investors were concerned of the possible on set of inflation. If these concerns are warranted and inflation is thus expected, the Bull market may very well be over. This after all makes sense, inflation has slowed and stopped many run-ups in the past, and the onset of inflation now could very well do the same. While the article introduced some possibilities, it said nothing of the likelihood, the causes of, the Fed.s reactions to, and the probability of expected inflationary increases in the future. This paper is thus dedicated to expanding on these ideas by exploring the rationality of these concerns by examining the circumstances surrounding inflation. It is my speculation that the Bull market may eventually correct itself in the future, but not in the short term due to immediate inflation. That is, that the market was in fact flat due investors concerns, but actual imperative inflation does not look to be expected in the near future. In order to begin to understand the nature of market trends and forces, one must first consider the current state of the U.S. economy relative to its business cycle. Certain aggregates can be measured that tell us a great deal about this. These aggregates have a strong history of leading, coinciding, or lagging the relative business cycle with a high amount of regular correlation. In fact the composite index of leading indicators shows that they have not experienced a significant downturn since the early 1980s, and have been increasing rather sharply over the past 3 years. The fact that all of these indicators are currently rising indicate that the economy is in a period of robust growth, or an expansionary phase. The fruits of this expansion have proven to be many, however it is often said that too much of a good thing can be bad. In this regard there are factors associated with the degree and nature of this economy, which could cause slowdown. For example, how is inflation measured, and to what degree should we be concerned with the effects and attributes of cost- push and demand- pull sources of inflation in this robust economy? According the Baye and Jansen, inflation can be measured by considering the growth of the money supply, the growth of M velocity, and the growth of real output. Algebraically this is represented by the equation: inflation = (gm + gv) gy. This equation thus considers the monetary, supply-push, and demand-pull factors. When the rate of inflation is measured in this way one can see, that over the last few years inflation has been relatively stable about its trend. This is in part, a result of the steady growth of GDP over the same period, and is testimony to the success of the Federal Reserve Boards monetary and fiscal policies. The rates of inflation over the last 10 years are graphically illustrated in Appendix 3A. Cost-push inflation incurs when the prices of inputs for production increase and thus cause profit margins to diminish. If firms are unwilling or unable to accept the declination in operating income, they will pass these increases on to consumers in the form of increased prices. In a competitive market it would seem th at firms would be unable to raise prices, unless there was uniform pressure affecting the aggregate whole of suppliers. (Examples include per unit costs of production, labor costs, energy prices, etc..) Both the dollar cost per person per hour, and the output per person have been increasing since 1997. These increases are most likely in response to technological advances in the public and private sectors. It is worth noting that the advances in compensation have exceeded those in output. Hence firms may have experienced a decline in marginal revenues. Another important aspect regarding wages and output is that the rates of increase for both have been declining since the second quarter of 1998. In the third quarter of 1999, real output was increasing more than the rate at which wages are increasing. This correction may be important when considering cost-push inflationary pressures. (Appendix 3b) On an aggregate level one can measure rising producer costs by examining the producer pri ce index. Appendix 3c graphically explores trends related to the PPI over the past three years. Upon examination it is clear that producer costs have been increasing steadily since 1997. This may be due in part to rising costs of compensation along with recent run-ups on crude oil prices. There is likely a strong correlation between the producer price index and the consumer price index, (The dependent variable) and is therefore important to include when making a forecast of future inflation. There may also be inflationary pressures attributable to demand-pull effects. This occurs when there are too many dollars chasing too few goods. A point to consider here is worker compensation and disposable personal income. The aggregate disposable personal income has been increasing over the recent economic prosperity. The key here is that the increases in income have been fairly stable. It is because of this stability that there appears to be little correlation when disposable personal income is regressed against inflation. Despite the low R^2 variable it still may be a worthy component to add to an inflation forecast. The growth of this economy has been very great, and this is support by strong consumer confidence. An area that would seem to contribute to this robust growth and inflationary pressure is the savings rate. Regardless of which indices or months one looks at, it is clear that personal saving in 1999 in considerably down from all other years. This may have an impact on the velocity of money and thus inflation in the future. The cyclical and irregular activity of the business cycle can be determined by detrending and deseasonalizing the real GDP data. (Appendix 4a) In doing so, one can see how the rates of inflation are correlated with that of the business cycle. The cyclical percentage changes in GDP serve as a good variable in inflationary forecasts because; significant amounts of real increase or decrease tend to be correlated with changes in inflation. Wh en inflation is regressed against the cyclical increases in real GDP, the R^2 value is approximately 32%, indicating a moderate and useful amount of correlation. Therefore I have also include this variable in my forecasting models. Perhaps the most significantly correlated variable that I have come across is percentage changes in monetary velocity. This predictor shows R^2 percentages in excess of 76%. Clearly, fluctuations in the velocity of money have a significant effect on inflation. Once the inflationary pressures of the 1980s resided the velocity of money began its steady upward climb. Only in the last few years has this rate begun to slow and decline. It would appear that the current trend in the velocity of money is one that reflects optimistic consumer behavior. (Appendix 5a shows the trends in the velocity of money over the past few decades.) Meanwhile the M2 money stock has been increasing at a fairly consistent rate for some time, with very little variation about its tre nd. (A.5b) Although in the second quarter the M2 money stock increased by a somewhat larger margin than was originally expected. The above considerations were important when I attempted to create a forecast for inflation by applying techniques discussed in Economic Forecasting 470. In order to attain the most accurate forecast I tried several different methods; including a bivariate, a multivariate, a multivariate with dummy variables, an automatic forecast, and a combination of techniques model. The Bivariate model was based on regressing inflation against the cyclical and irregular behavior of gross domestic product in order to see how the business cycle affected the rate of inflation. This model produced a significant regression statistic near 32%. In other words, roughly one-third of the variation in inflation can be explained by the stage of the business cycle. Both of the multivariate models contained the following predictor variables; detrended seasonally adjusted GDP, change s in the M2 money stock, changes in the velocity of money, changes in the Ppi, and changes in real wages. The most highly correlated variable being percentage changes in the velocity of money (76)%, and the least correlated being changes in the Ppi (4%). The multivariate model was able to produce a regression statistic of approximately 46%. The multivariate with dummy variables actually produce a lower R^2 value, and thus a less dependable model. The automatic forecasting method with Smart software produced a model, which could explain 79% of the data. The software chose a single exponential smoothing model for its forecast which produced a Durbin Watsin statistic of 1.85, and standard error statistic of 1.211. This model eventually proved to be the superior model because of its lower than others error statistics. The combination model produced lower MAD, MSE, RMSE statistics than did the automatic method, but smoothing model was more accurate in that it produced a significantly low er MAPE. The summary of method errors, as well as forecasting models, are contained in appendix 6a. Therefore, using these crude methods I have been able to determine that Smarts single exponential smoothing model provides the most accurate forecasting tool for considering this type of numerical data. Based on this model, the forecasted values of inflation for the third and fourth quarters of 1999 are as follows: Q3 = -3.166*.258*3.682 Q4 = -3.216*.258*3.732 Smart software estimates these value ranges with 95% confidence and an average forecast error of 1.689. By considering some current events that are taking place in the domestic and global economy one might be able to more reasonably estimate this range, and thus assert some greater probabilities upon it. As of August 24, 1999 the Federal Reserve Board took a stance to reduce the leverage of some contributive inflationary aggregates. These actions included a .25% increase in the federal funds rate, bringing the total to about 5.2 5%. As discussed in Money and Banking, this will have a direct impact on the reserve positions and actions for lending institutions. The FOMC helped to accommodate this position stance by selling treasury securities in the secondary market. This is but one of the FOMC directives that can produce this effect. By doing so it detracts funds from the banks, thus further tightening their positions. On November 3, 1999, the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis released a document prepared with information accumulated before October 25, 1999. These findings were summarized and placed in the Beige Book. Within this report there is data pertaining to the latest statistics on consumer spending, manufacturing, labor markets, wages and prices, real estate and construction, and banking and finance. The article points out that the majority of districts are reporting increases in consumer outlays, and only a handful show signs of slowing. Some of these districts report that consumer expenditures mi ght be down only due to the effects of hurricane Floyd. Most reported positive outlooks as the economy continues its wild ride and the Holiday seasons are soon approaching. Virtually all districts reported increases in manufacturing across a wide variety of economic sector and industries. This includes massive increases in biotechs to strong growth in paper processing. The November 3 Beige Book for Minneapolis also points out that labor markets are saturated and the demand for workers exceeds that of the supply in many areas. This may be taken as good news from a college students perspective, but at the same time it might also add to cost-push inflationary pressures. Given the increases in wages and disposable income, it is no doubt that mortgage markets continue to prosper. The east coast has seen 5 to 6 % increases in property value, but the volume of loans is growing at much smaller rate. (1 to 2%) On December 1, 1999 the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released their informati on pertaining to the third quarter of 1999. This article contained much information, including some of the most recent economic estimates and reports. Among them was news concerning the trade deficit. Because net exports is a component of GDP, it is important to recognize the nature of this sector when considering the future magnitude of GDP, potential inflation, and future monetary and fiscal policies determined by the Fed. It is plain to see that the recent currency crisis, increasing energy costs, and tariff problems with China have had a profound effect on the trade deficit. (As demonstrated graphically in appendix 7a) The rate of increase related to the trade deficit, and imports exceeded that of any other in two decades. It is also noteworthy that export growth during this time had slowed considerably and even decreased. The BEA noted that for the first time in many months, foreign markets were beginning to show signs of real recovery. Having noted this the article went on to mention that import growth had showed only a slight increase above last quarters, and exports showed a 7% increase over last quarter. If these trends continue it could mean additional growth to gross domestic product. The increases have predominantly from Japan and other industrial countries, while the Asian tigers and Latin America are still in turmoil. To what extent this news is relevant to the domestic economy in terms of growth and inflationary pressures has yet to be seen. However it does seem logical that we can expect the trade deficit to at least flatten out in the coming months, or even experience some decline depending on the resiliency of the other foreign markets. The BEA also estimated that GDP had increased by approximately 5.5% in the third quarter up from an increase of 1.9% in the second. This number was slightly higher than the upper range of an earlier estimate. Related to this increase the bureau noted that corporate profits related to current production were up , although the profits per unit of real production have decreased. These tendencies might be correlated to the factors earlier discussed relating to wage increases relative to productivity. Though not mentioned by the BEA the rate of unemployment continues to slide toward all time lows. Day in and day out, reports of local, state, and federal record low unemployment is being reported. Thus the amount of cyclical unemployment in the economy is virtually zero, and the economy is operating at near full capacity. The unemployment rate is graphically illustrated in appendix 7b. This economics student is not ready to say how long the economy can sustain these r.p.m.s, but does know that eventually the engine must be cooled or the economic expansion and bull market may come to an abrupt end. At the time of the August 24 meeting the Federal Reserve Board and Dr. Greenspan did not anticipate the need for any further tightening of the reserve markets in the near future. Given the fact that th e economy has continued to outperform economists expectations over the inter-meeting period, it will be interesting to see what courses of action and concerns the Fed discusses at the next meeting. (Scheduled sometime near the end of November) What do these rapid and consistent increases mean for the domestic economy. From my perspective, this economy is all I have known. Many of the problems that used to face Americans seem to have been deleted. Leaving us today with the new challenges and fronts to conquer. One of these challenges is keeping this economy heading in a positive and stable direction. A looming threat to the stock markets and domestic economy is inflation. While doing research for this paper I stumbled across the unofficial fan club for Alan Greenspan. I had never heard of a fan club for an economist, but after seeing how stable the growth rates of GDP and inflation have been, my interest and admiration are growing quickly. Earlier this year Fred Vogelstein wrote an a rticle quoting Mr. Greenspan as saying, Do worry. Be unhappy. This from an economist with his own fan club; sounds like trouble. The article summarized some of Greenspans remarks in which he speculated about the increasing probability of an inflation spike and increased interest rates. He also pointed the possibility of a stock market correction, and the possible onset of a bear market. Given the above remarks from Mr. Vogelsteins article it seems likely that the inflation forecast previously presented will likely be in the upper portion of the range. That is, it is likely to be between .25 and 3.7% for the remainder of 1999. Though it is important to note that this analysis is based strictly on numerical data, and does not consider the realities of global economics. Inflation to investors generally means that their actual returns are going down. As a result the prices are usually bid down in order to better reflect the required yield on equity. Based on my further analysis of this article it seems that investors concerns about inflation were and are indeed genuine, and the onset of inflation in the future could mean further plateaus in equity prices and increases in interest rates. However, I believe that this course of events might also present diversified and risk adverse investors with several opportunities to strengthen their positions, and add some securities that might be presently overvalued. (Increasing energy prices also increase the attractiveness for companies such as bldp and ucr.) Bibliography Works Cited (1) Baye/Jansen. Money and Banking. Houghton Mifflin Publishing Company. (1995) Pages 61-88. (2) Economagic, (1999) Economic Time Series Page. ; http://www.economagic.com/; (3) Employment Cost Trends. BLS, (1999) ; http://stats.bls.gov/ecthome.htm; (4) Freidma. PPT Slide Show. http://www.ecom In order to carry on photosynthesis, green plants Essay